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OPENWATCH NIGERIA
CRISIS WATCH · MARCH 2026
OPENWATCH NIGERIA · CRISIS WATCHOSINT-DERIVED · OPENWATCH.NG
MARCH 2026

Boko Haram Intensifies Attacks in Borno, Targeting Military and Civilians

March 2026 witnessed a significant escalation in violence, predominantly led by Boko Haram in Borno State.

INCIDENTS777
FATALITIES3,144
VICTIMS7,277
critical

OSINT-DERIVED · GENERATED 20/05/2026, 18:05:32 WAT

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Boko Haram Intensifies Attacks in Borno, Targeting Military and Civilians

INCIDENTS
777
FATALITIES
3,144
VICTIMS
7,277
STATES AFFECTED
5

Incident intensity by state

INCIDENTS01–1011–3031+

Most affected states

Borno
134 · 1678
Benue
57 · 250
Plateau
56 · 404
Kwara
46 · 180
Katsina
19 · 104

INCIDENTS · FATALITIES

6-month national trend

45OCT29NOV58DEC0JAN139FEB780MAR

Threat level

low
moderate
elevated
high
critical
↑ DETERIORATED (30)
BornoPlateauBenueKatsinaYobeNigerKadunaKwaraCross RiverZamfaraOndoTarabaLagosKanoSokotoNasarawaDeltaOyoEnuguEdoBauchiRiversImoKogiEbonyiOsunKebbiFctAkwa IbomAnambra
↓ IMPROVED (1)
Adamawa

Top Incidents

Highest-impact events recorded this month

#DATESTATEEVENTFATALITIES
12026-03-11BornoBoko Haram insurgents attacked military bases in Borno State300
22026-03-19BornoTroops of Operation Hadin Kai have neutralised over 200 terrorists200
32026-03-18KwaraA massacre occurred in Woro, Kwara State170
42026-03-08BornoAn attack by suspected Boko Haram and ISWAP terrorists in Ngoshe community50
52026-03-06BornoTroops neutralised several terrorists and rescued 24 kidnapped victims18

State Detail

Most active states this month

Borno

134 INC1678 KIA
2
OCT
1
NOV
4
DEC
0
JAN
1
FEB
139
MAR

Borno State experienced the highest level of violence, with numerous deadly attacks by Boko Haram.

Military EngagementsCivic Impact and Displacement

Plateau

56 INC404 KIA
4
OCT
0
NOV
3
DEC
0
JAN
24
FEB
59
MAR

Plateau State saw a significant increase in violent incidents, causing major concern for local security.

Community and Security Tensions

Benue

57 INC250 KIA
4
OCT
3
NOV
1
DEC
0
JAN
2
FEB
58
MAR

In Benue State, there was a noticeable uptick in violent incidents, including attacks on communities.

Community Attacks

Kwara

46 INC180 KIA
3
OCT
0
NOV
4
DEC
0
JAN
5
FEB
47
MAR

Kwara State experienced a dramatic increase in violent incidents, highlighted by a massacre in Woro.

Massacre in Woro

Katsina

19 INC104 KIA
0
OCT
1
NOV
0
DEC
0
JAN
1
FEB
19
MAR

Katsina State witnessed a rise in fatalities due to increased militant activities.

Militant Activities

Outlook

April 2026

⚠ CONFLICT RISK ALERTS
  • Continued targeting of military and civilian sites by Boko Haram in Borno could further destabilize the region.
  • Potential for escalation in Kwara and Benue as insurgent activities expand westwards.
  • Risk of increased displacement and humanitarian crises, particularly in Gwoza and Maiduguri, due to ongoing conflicts.
  • Possible retribution attacks on local communities suspected of collaborating with Nigerian security forces.
  • Increased likelihood of kidnappings and bombings as terrorist groups seek to leverage hostages for negotiations.
✓ RESOLUTION OPPORTUNITIES
  • Strengthening of military presence and intelligence operations in Borno could disrupt terrorist activities.
  • Engagement with local community leaders to improve grassroots security measures.
  • International collaboration for enhanced counter-terrorism support.
↑ DETERIORATED SITUATIONS

Borno. Massive increase in terrorist attacks and fatalities, particularly by Boko Haram.

Plateau. Significant rise in violence and fatalities, stressing local security frameworks.

Benue. Sharp increase in violent incidents, indicating a worsening security situation.

Katsina. Marked increase in fatalities due to escalated attacks.

Yobe. Increase in violent incidents and fatalities, highlighting growing instability.

Niger. Rising number of incidents and fatalities, indicating deteriorating security.

Kaduna. Increased incidents and fatalities, reflecting a tense security environment.

Kwara. Significant increase in incidents, though fatalities slightly decreased.

Cross River. Rise in violent incidents and fatalities, signaling growing conflict.

Zamfara. Increased incidents and fatalities, pointing to escalating violence.

Ondo. Significant increase in incidents and fatalities, highlighting security challenges.

Taraba. Increase in incidents and fatalities, indicating a worsening conflict scenario.

Lagos. Rise in incidents and fatalities, underscoring emerging security threats.

Kano. Increase in incidents and fatalities, reflecting heightened security concerns.

Sokoto. Increase in incidents and fatalities, indicating growing instability.

Nasarawa. Rise in incidents and fatalities, pointing to an escalating conflict.

Delta. Significant increase in incidents, though fatalities remained low.

Oyo. Sharp increase in incidents, though fatalities remained low.

Enugu. Increase in incidents and fatalities, highlighting security challenges.

Edo. Significant increase in incidents, though fatalities slightly increased.

Bauchi. Increase in incidents and fatalities, indicating a tense security situation.

Rivers. Rise in incidents and fatalities, highlighting emerging security threats.

Imo. Increase in incidents and fatalities, reflecting growing security concerns.

Kogi. Increase in incidents and fatalities, indicating a worsening conflict scenario.

Ebonyi. Increase in incidents and fatalities, signaling growing conflict.

Osun. Increase in incidents, though fatalities remained low.

Kebbi. Increase in incidents, though fatalities slightly increased.

Fct. Increase in incidents, though fatalities slightly increased.

Akwa Ibom. Increase in incidents, though fatalities slightly decreased.

Anambra. Increase in incidents, though fatalities remained stable.

↓ IMPROVED SITUATIONS

Adamawa. Decrease in incidents and significant reduction in fatalities, indicating improved security measures.

OpenWatch Nigeria compiles this brief from open-source reporting on security incidents across Nigeria. Figures are OSINT-derived and may revise as reporting matures. Map geometry: @svg-maps/nigeria (CC BY 4.0).