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OPENWATCH NIGERIA
CRISIS WATCH · MAY 2026
OPENWATCH NIGERIA · CRISIS WATCHOSINT-DERIVED · OPENWATCH.NG
MAY 2026

Joint North-East counterterrorism gains offset by contested Zamfara airstrikes and Oyo school abductions

Nigeria's security picture in May 2026 was shaped by joint Nigerian-U.S. counterterrorism operations against ISIS/ISWAP in the Lake Chad Basin, contested military airstrikes causing mass civilian casualties in Zamfara and Niger, and the alarming southward migration of mass-abduction tactics into Oyo State, set against an overall decline in recorded fatalities from the prior month.

INCIDENTS753
FATALITIES2,341
VICTIMS5,016
critical

OSINT-DERIVED · GENERATED 27/06/2026, 02:35:47 WAT

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Joint North-East counterterrorism gains offset by contested Zamfara airstrikes and Oyo school abductions

INCIDENTS
753
FATALITIES
2,341
VICTIMS
5,016
STATES AFFECTED
37

Incident intensity by state

INCIDENTS01–1011–3031+

Most affected states

Borno
60 · 744
Oyo
56 · 26
Plateau
48 · 164
Katsina
48 · 150
Zamfara
42 · 402
Niger
28 · 180
Kwara
28 · 178
Imo
26 · 23
Lagos
25 · 19
Edo
25 · 11
Ogun
25 · 7
Kano
24 · 37

INCIDENTS · FATALITIES

6-month national trend

58DEC0JAN139FEB783MAR798APR749MAY

Threat level

low
moderate
elevated
high
critical
↑ DETERIORATED (15)
NigerKatsinaZamfaraKanoOyoKogiImoAnambraEnuguOsunAkwa IbomBauchiCross RiverNasarawaKebbi
↓ IMPROVED (11)
PlateauBornoYobeBenueKadunaAdamawaKwaraBenue, KadunaOndoSokotoLagos

Top Incidents

Highest-impact events recorded this month

#DATESTATEEVENTFATALITIES
12026-05-19BornoJoint operations by Nigerian and U.S. forces in North-East Nigeria resulted in the elimination of 175 ISIS fighters, including several top commanders, significantly disrupting the group's operational capacity.175
22026-05-25BornoOn May 16, 2026, a joint operation by American and Nigerian forces targeted ISIS/ISWAP compounds in the Lake Chad Basin, resulting in the deaths of over 175 terrorists, including a senior ISIS leader.175
32026-05-01KwaraAmnesty International reported that at least 154 members of the Fulani community died in a military-controlled detention facility in Yikpata, Kwara State, due to overcrowded and unsanitary conditions leading to malnutrition and disease.154
42026-05-13ZamfaraA military airstrike on Tumfa market in Zurmi LGA, Zamfara State, resulted in the deaths of at least 117 people, including civilians and bandits, during a targeted operation against armed groups.117
52026-05-13ZamfaraMilitary airstrikes in Tumfa village, Shinkafi LGA, Zamfara, reportedly killed at least 100 civilians, prompting calls for an investigation by the United Nations.100

State Detail

Most active states this month

Borno

60 INC744 KIA
4
DEC
0
JAN
1
FEB
139
MAR
96
APR
61
MAY

Borno remained the epicentre of counterterrorism operations, with joint Nigerian-U.S. strikes reported to have killed around 175 ISIS/ISWAP fighters in the Lake Chad Basin even as Boko Haram beheaded captives in Gwoza and Chadian airstrikes killed Nigerian fishermen.

Joint Nigerian-U.S. counterterrorism strikesBoko Haram atrocities and abductionsCross-border airstrike casualties

Oyo

56 INC26 KIA
0
DEC
0
JAN
0
FEB
23
MAR
19
APR
56
MAY

Oyo State recorded a sharp escalation as armed groups carried out mass school abductions in Oriire LGA near Ogbomoso, seizing dozens of pupils and teachers and killing at least three, marking the spread of North-East tactics to the South-West.

Mass school abductions in Oriire LGAKillings and federal response

Plateau

48 INC164 KIA
3
DEC
0
JAN
24
FEB
59
MAR
105
APR
49
MAY

Plateau State saw sustained communal violence, with over 50 deaths in unspecified attacks and further raids on Jos North, Bassa and Barkin Ladi communities, though both incidents and fatalities declined steeply from April's surge.

Mass killings and community raidsBarkin Ladi and Riyom attacks

Katsina

48 INC150 KIA
0
DEC
0
JAN
1
FEB
20
MAR
35
APR
47
MAY

Katsina experienced intensifying banditry, with market and village raids in Musawa, Dutsinma and Kankia LGAs killing scores, even as security operations rescued kidnap victims in Matazu.

Market and village massacresSecurity operations and rescues

Zamfara

42 INC402 KIA
1
DEC
0
JAN
5
FEB
27
MAR
41
APR
42
MAY

Zamfara recorded one of the month's highest state fatality tolls, driven by military airstrikes on Tumfa — at least 117 killed in Zurmi LGA and a reported 100 in Shinkafi LGA, figures that may partly overlap — alongside sustained bandit attacks, prompting UN calls for investigation.

Contested military airstrikesBanditry and highway ambushesRescue operations

Niger

28 INC180 KIA
1
DEC
0
JAN
2
FEB
16
MAR
19
APR
28
MAY

Niger State deteriorated sharply, with airstrikes in Shiroro killing both bandits and civilians, a militia raid killing 41 Fulani herders in Borgu, and recurring communal clashes in Rafi and Gbako LGAs.

Airstrikes in Shiroro LGAMilitia raid on Fulani herdersCommunal and farmland clashes

Kwara

28 INC178 KIA
4
DEC
0
JAN
5
FEB
47
MAR
41
APR
28
MAY

Kwara's toll was dominated by the reported deaths of 154 Fulani detainees in a Yikpata military facility, alongside a wave of church-vigil abductions and attacks on police camps in Ekiti, Isin and Kaiama LGAs.

Detention facility deathsChurch and prayer-ground abductionsAttacks on police camps

Yobe

17 INC86 KIA
0
DEC
0
JAN
0
FEB
9
MAR
21
APR
17
MAY

Yobe saw deadly Boko Haram/ISWAP assaults on military training facilities in Buni Yadi, Gujba LGA, killing dozens of soldiers and police, even as troops repelled attacks and rescued abductees.

Assaults on Buni Yadi military facilitiesRescue and clearance operations

Imo

26 INC23 KIA
0
DEC
0
JAN
1
FEB
13
MAR
8
APR
26
MAY

Imo State recorded rising cult and herder-linked violence concentrated in Owerri West, alongside kidnappings that prompted community protests over insecurity.

Cult and community attacksHerder violence and kidnapping

Kano

24 INC37 KIA
6
DEC
0
JAN
5
FEB
20
MAR
11
APR
25
MAY

Kano saw a surge in political-thug violence near the Government House and bandit raids on the Yankamaye community in Tsanyawa LGA, alongside a major fraud case in Sabon Gari.

Political violenceBandit raids on Tsanyawa LGA

Benue

22 INC28 KIA
1
DEC
0
JAN
2
FEB
59
MAR
53
APR
22
MAY

Benue's violence was driven by cult killings in Makurdi and herder-linked ambushes in Agatu and Otukpo LGAs, with both incidents and fatalities falling markedly from April.

Cult killings in MakurdiHighway ambushes and abductions

Cross River

14 INC63 KIA
0
DEC
0
JAN
5
FEB
16
MAR
11
APR
14
MAY

Cross River's toll was dominated by a serial killer's confession to roughly 30 murders in Odukpani, alongside waterway abductions and a fatal student protest in Calabar.

Serial killings in OdukpaniWaterway abductions and unrest

Outlook

June 2026

⚠ CONFLICT RISK ALERTS
  • •Continued mass abductions targeting schools in Oyo, Kebbi and the South-West as armed groups exploit weak rural security around Ogbomoso.
  • •Reprisal and civilian-targeting risk in Zamfara and Niger following mass-casualty airstrikes on Tumfa and Guradnayi, amid pending UN and Amnesty investigations.
  • •Sustained ISWAP/Boko Haram counterattacks on military bases in Borno and Yobe following the loss of senior commanders in joint strikes.
  • •Escalating communal and Fulani-vigilante violence in Niger State's Borgu and Rafi LGAs linked to Ansaru informant accusations.
  • •Persistent banditry and market attacks across Katsina's Musawa and Dutsinma LGAs during post-Eid movement.
✓ RESOLUTION OPPORTUNITIES
  • •Momentum from joint Nigerian-U.S. operations in the Lake Chad Basin offers a window to degrade ISWAP command structures if sustained.
  • •Federal Government engagement in Ogbomoso, Oyo could enable negotiated release of abducted pupils and teachers.
  • •Independent investigations sought by the UN and Amnesty International into airstrikes and detention deaths may strengthen civilian-protection safeguards.
↑ DETERIORATED SITUATIONS

Niger. Mass-casualty airstrikes in Shiroro and a militia raid killing 41 Fulani herders in Borgu drove fatalities sharply higher.

Katsina. Recurrent bandit raids on Jikamshi market, Dutsinma and Kankia villages spiked both incidents and deaths.

Zamfara. Twin Tumfa airstrikes and highway ambushes pushed fatalities up despite a near-flat incident count.

Kano. Political-thug killings near Government House and bandit attacks on Tsanyawa's Yankamaye community raised the toll.

Oyo. A wave of school abductions in Oriire LGA dramatically increased incident volume and victim counts.

Kogi. Military operations in Lokoja and associated reporting elevated activity levels.

Imo. Cult and herder-linked attacks in Owerri West and a community raid increased recorded incidents.

Anambra. Cult-linked murder and kidnapping arrests in Idemili North reflected rising criminal violence.

Enugu. IPOB/ESN ambushes on troops in Ezeagu LGA marked a modest uptick.

Osun. Cult rivalry killings in Ede drove a small rise in incidents.

Akwa Ibom. Fraud, vandalism and cultism arrests in Ikot Ekpene raised the incident count.

Bauchi. Mob violence in Warji raised incidents even as fatalities eased.

Cross River. A serial-killer confession and waterway abductions lifted incidents though deaths fell overall.

Nasarawa. Human-trafficking arrests added incidents while fatalities dropped sharply.

Kebbi. A school abduction in Danko-Wasagu increased incidents while overall deaths fell markedly.

↓ IMPROVED SITUATIONS

Plateau. Despite continued attacks in Barkin Ladi and Bassa, both incidents and fatalities fell steeply from April's surge.

Borno. Counterterrorism gains and reduced large-scale massacres lowered the toll from April.

Yobe. Fatalities dropped sharply despite deadly Boko Haram raids on Buni Yadi military facilities.

Benue. Communal and cult killings continued in Makurdi and Agatu but at lower intensity than April.

Kaduna. Kidnap-for-ransom persisted in Chikun but mass-casualty events declined.

Adamawa. Activity eased to hostel robberies and minor crime in Numan.

Kwara. Despite the Yikpata detention deaths and church-vigil abductions, incidents and fatalities fell from April.

Benue, Kaduna. Combined reporting showed a modest decline in incidents and fatalities.

Ondo. Kidnap victims rescued in Akoko South-East with no recorded deaths.

Sokoto. A Lakurawa ambush in Illela continued but overall fatalities fell.

Lagos. Activity remained largely confined to fraud and trafficking arrests in Badagry.

OpenWatch Nigeria compiles this brief from open-source reporting on security incidents across Nigeria. Figures are OSINT-derived and may revise as reporting matures. Map geometry: @svg-maps/nigeria (CC BY 4.0).