OPENWATCH NIGERIA CRISIS WATCH · JUNE 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OPENWATCH NIGERIA · CRISIS WATCHOSINT-DERIVED · OPENWATCH.NG | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JUNE 2026 US-Nigerian strikes degrade ISWAP in Borno as banditry escalates across the North-WestJune 2026 recorded 841 incidents and 1,852 fatalities nationally, with a concentration of state-led counter-terrorism operations in Borno alongside a sharp deterioration of banditry across Zamfara, Sokoto, Kaduna and Kebbi and sustained communal violence in Plateau. INCIDENTS841 FATALITIES1,852 VICTIMS6,491 critical OSINT-DERIVED · GENERATED 01/07/2026, 08:36:23 WAT National DashboardUS-Nigerian strikes degrade ISWAP in Borno as banditry escalates across the North-West INCIDENTS 841 FATALITIES 1,852 VICTIMS 6,491 STATES AFFECTED 38 Incident intensity by stateMost affected statesPlateau 61 · 192 Borno 52 · 603 Oyo 51 · 11 Zamfara 47 · 178 Kaduna 40 · 95 Kogi 39 · 44 Lagos 37 · 22 Edo 35 · 15 Katsina 34 · 60 Sokoto 32 · 121 Ogun 31 · 36 Osun 31 · 14 INCIDENTS · FATALITIES 6-month national trendThreat levellow moderate elevated high critical ↑ DETERIORATED (15) SokotoKadunaKebbiKogiPlateauOgunOsunBauchiLagosEdoOndoRiversNasarawaKwaraZamfara ↓ IMPROVED (9) NigerBornoKatsinaYobeCross RiverKanoImoOyoAkwa Ibom Top IncidentsHighest-impact events recorded this month
State DetailMost active states this month Plateau61 INC192 KIA 0JAN 24FEB 59MAR 105APR 48MAY 60JUN Plateau recorded the highest incident count nationally, with attacks on Kawel community in Bokkos LGA driving 192 fatalities across 61 incidents. Kawel attacks in BokkosBarkin Ladi and Jos South attacks Borno52 INC603 KIA 0JAN 1FEB 139MAR 96APR 60MAY 52JUN Borno recorded 603 fatalities across 52 incidents as US-Nigerian operations killed hundreds of ISWAP/ISIS fighters and the military recovered 360 abductees. Counter-terrorism operations against ISWAPMandara Mountains rescue Zamfara47 INC178 KIA 0JAN 5FEB 27MAR 41APR 42MAY 47JUN Zamfara recorded 178 fatalities across 47 incidents, dominated by a mass killing in Gummi/Bukkuyum and repeated abductions of village elders in Maradun LGA. Gummi and Bukkuyum attacksAbductions during peace missions Kaduna40 INC95 KIA 0JAN 8FEB 26MAR 37APR 23MAY 40JUN Kaduna deteriorated sharply, recording 95 fatalities across 40 incidents driven by bandit attacks in Southern Kaduna and Birnin Gwari LGA, offset by a mass hostage rescue. Southern Kaduna rescue and attacksBirnin Gwari farmland killings Kogi39 INC44 KIA 0JAN 2FEB 9MAR 14APR 16MAY 39JUN Kogi deteriorated with a cluster of abductions around Ayegunle-Igun in Kabba-Bunu LGA and a fatal school attack, totalling 44 fatalities across 39 incidents. Ayegunle-Igun abductionsIluke school attack Lagos37 INC22 KIA 0JAN 7FEB 23MAR 30APR 24MAY 37JUN Lagos recorded 22 fatalities across 37 incidents, driven by Aiye Confraternity cult violence and countered by human-trafficking rescues. Cult violence across the metropolisTrafficking rescues and Operation Kósàyè Katsina34 INC60 KIA 0JAN 1FEB 19MAR 35APR 47MAY 34JUN Katsina improved month-on-month, recording 60 fatalities across 34 incidents as vigilantes and CJTF repelled several bandit raids on Matazu and Malumfashi LGAs. Matazu and Malumfashi attacksRescues and repelled raids Sokoto32 INC121 KIA 0JAN 2FEB 16MAR 16APR 11MAY 32JUN Sokoto deteriorated most sharply of all states, adding 21 incidents and 107 fatalities as repeated bandit raids struck Tureta LGA communities over Eid-el-Kabir. Tureta LGA attacksAbductions and rescues in Sabon Birni Ogun31 INC36 KIA 0JAN 1FEB 4MAR 27APR 25MAY 29JUN Ogun deteriorated with 36 fatalities across 31 incidents, driven by kidnapping ambushes and dredging-site attacks, alongside targeted killings in Abeokuta. Kidnapping ambushes and dredging attacksAbeokuta killings and fraud Kebbi30 INC67 KIA 0JAN 6FEB 11MAR 11APR 16MAY 29JUN Kebbi deteriorated with 67 fatalities across 30 incidents, driven by a bandit attack in Arewa LGA and fatal farmer-herder clashes in Argungu LGA. Arewa attack and Lakurawa cellsArgungu farmer-herder clashes Niger28 INC30 KIA 0JAN 2FEB 16MAR 19APR 28MAY 28JUN Niger improved markedly, with fatalities falling 150 month-on-month to 30 across 28 incidents as Operation Fansan Yamma airstrikes disrupted terrorist convergences in Shiroro LGA. Borgu and Shiroro attacksOperation Fansan Yamma airstrikes Benue25 INC30 KIA 0JAN 2FEB 58MAR 53APR 22MAY 25JUN Benue recorded 30 fatalities across 25 incidents, marked by the killing of the state MACBAN chairman and anti-banditry operations under Operation Whirl Stroke. MACBAN chairman killingAnti-crime operations OutlookJuly 2026 ⚠ CONFLICT RISK ALERTS
✓ RESOLUTION OPPORTUNITIES
↑ DETERIORATED SITUATIONS Sokoto. Repeated bandit raids on Tureta LGA's Dangulbi community over Eid killed dozens in successive attacks. Kaduna. Bandit attacks on Birnin Gwari and Southern Kaduna communities drove a sharp fatality increase despite a mass rescue. Kebbi. A major attack on Fesken Rafi in Arewa LGA and fatal Gulma farmer-herder clashes escalated the toll. Kogi. A cluster of Kabba-Bunu abductions and a fatal school attack sharply raised incident counts. Plateau. Attacks on Kawel in Bokkos LGA compounded ongoing Barkin Ladi violence. Ogun. Kidnapping ambushes on the Ijebu Ode-Benin Expressway and dredging-site attacks lifted fatalities. Osun. Pre-election political violence rose ahead of the August governorship poll. Bauchi. A deadly farmer-herder clash in Darazo LGA drove fatalities up despite three fewer incidents. Lagos. Aiye Confraternity cult clashes across Ikorodu, Ojo and Alimosho raised the incident count. Edo. Farm-based kidnappings in Etsako West LGA increased recorded activity. Ondo. Rising kidnapping activity, including in Akure North LGA, increased incidents. Rivers. Fewer incidents but a modest rise in fatalities from interpersonal and cult violence. Nasarawa. A fatal attack on NIPSS security operatives kept fatalities elevated despite few incidents. Kwara. Boko Haram-linked mass abductions in Kaiama persisted, though fatalities fell sharply. Zamfara. Incidents rose with mass abductions in Maradun and Gummi despite a large fatality decline. ↓ IMPROVED SITUATIONS Niger. Operation Fansan Yamma airstrikes in Shiroro LGA accompanied a marked fatality decline. Borno. Counter-terrorism operations accompanied lower incidents and fatalities versus May. Katsina. Vigilante and CJTF defences repelled several bandit raids, reducing incidents and fatalities. Yobe. Successful rescues of abductees in Fika LGA accompanied a decline in both metrics. Cross River. A hostage rescue in Yala LGA accompanied a sharp fatality decline. Kano. Fewer incidents overall despite a farmer-herder clash in Warawa LGA. Imo. Reduced militant and cartel-linked violence lowered incidents and fatalities. Oyo. Fewer incidents and fatalities despite a high-profile Ogbomoso school abduction. Akwa Ibom. Trafficking rescues in Mkpat Enin LGA occurred with no recorded fatalities. OpenWatch Nigeria compiles this brief from open-source reporting on security incidents across Nigeria. Figures are OSINT-derived and may revise as reporting matures. Map geometry: @svg-maps/nigeria (CC BY 4.0). |