OPENWATCH NIGERIA CRISIS WATCH · JULY 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
OPENWATCH NIGERIA · CRISIS WATCHOSINT-DERIVED · OPENWATCH.NG | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
JULY 2026 Farmer-herder massacres in Benue and Niger drive fatalities despite intensified military operations in the northwest.Nigeria recorded 919 conflict incidents and 1,347 fatalities in July 2026, a rise in incident volume over June's 834 even as total fatalities fell from 1,843, reflecting the winding down of the exceptional Borno death toll and a shift in the geography of mass killing toward the North Central and northwest. INCIDENTS919 FATALITIES1,347 VICTIMS2,903 critical OSINT-DERIVED · GENERATED 01/08/2026, 06:03:09 WAT National DashboardFarmer-herder massacres in Benue and Niger drive fatalities despite intensified military operations in the northwest. INCIDENTS 919 FATALITIES 1,347 VICTIMS 2,903 STATES AFFECTED 39 Incident intensity by stateMost affected statesBorno 82 · 99 Plateau 73 · 96 Benue 57 · 172 Zamfara 54 · 197 Niger 41 · 148 Lagos 39 · 9 Sokoto 38 · 70 Katsina 35 · 143 Rivers 29 · 24 Bauchi 25 · 11 Oyo 24 · 13 Delta 24 · 5 INCIDENTS · FATALITIES 6-month national trendThreat levellow moderate elevated high critical ↑ DETERIORATED (20) BenueNigerKatsinaKwaraRiversZamfaraTarabaNasarawaYobeKanoAkwa IbomBayelsaJigawaOndoBauchiOyoLagosSokotoPlateauBorno ↓ IMPROVED (7) KebbiOgunEdoKadunaKogiOsunEkiti Top IncidentsHighest-impact events recorded this month
State DetailMost active states this month Borno82 INC99 KIA 1FEB 139MAR 96APR 60MAY 52JUN 82JUL Borno recorded the highest incident count nationally at 82, but fatalities fell dramatically to 99 as June's exceptional toll was not repeated; military drone operations and factional infighting dominated the month. Operation HADIN KAI air campaignFactional infighting and abduction attemptsAttacks on security forces Plateau73 INC96 KIA 24FEB 59MAR 105APR 48MAY 60JUN 73JUL Plateau recorded 73 incidents and 96 fatalities as armed Fulani militias repeatedly attacked farming communities in Riyom and Bokkos LGAs, wiping out members of single families. Family massacres in Riyom LGAReprisal cycle and contested attributions Benue57 INC172 KIA 2FEB 58MAR 53APR 22MAY 25JUN 57JUL Benue suffered 172 fatalities across 57 incidents, driven by a sustained campaign of herder attacks on Idoma and Tiv farming communities in Otukpo, Ohimini, and Katsina-Ala LGAs. The Otukpo killing fieldsCommunity response and spreading violence Zamfara54 INC197 KIA 5FEB 27MAR 41APR 42MAY 47JUN 54JUL Zamfara recorded the highest fatality total among significant states at 197 across 54 incidents, as intensive military operations killed scores of bandits even as massacres and mass abductions continued. Military offensives and hostage rescuesBandit massacres at Sauna Niger41 INC148 KIA 2FEB 16MAR 19APR 28MAY 28JUN 41JUL Niger recorded 148 fatalities across 41 incidents, dominated by escalating Kamuku-Fulani ethnic clashes in Rafi LGA and bandit raids on farming communities in Pandogari and Borgu. Kamuku-Fulani clashes in Rafi LGABandit and terrorist attacks Katsina35 INC143 KIA 1FEB 19MAR 35APR 47MAY 34JUN 35JUL Katsina recorded 143 fatalities across 35 incidents, with large-scale military engagements killing scores of terrorists and freeing hundreds of hostages, even as bandits raided farming communities. Major military offensivesBandit raids and reprisals Kaduna18 INC87 KIA 8FEB 26MAR 37APR 23MAY 40JUN 18JUL Kaduna recorded 87 fatalities across 18 incidents, concentrated in a deadly assault on Kauru LGA and retaliatory bandit attacks on farmers in Birnin Gwari. The Naridon village massacreBirnin Gwari retaliatory killings Kwara21 INC86 KIA 5FEB 47MAR 41APR 28MAY 29JUN 21JUL Kwara recorded 86 fatalities across 21 incidents, dominated by the Lata Nna community's documented two-year toll of bandit attacks and an active kidnapping economy. The Lata Nna community SOSKidnapping and rescue operations Sokoto38 INC70 KIA 2FEB 16MAR 16APR 11MAY 32JUN 38JUL Sokoto recorded 70 fatalities across 38 incidents, with mass abductions in Sabon Birni, Rabah, and Tambuwal LGAs the dominant threat, including operations attributed to Bello Turji. Mass abductions and layered ransomsVillage raids and killings Lagos39 INC9 KIA 7FEB 23MAR 30APR 24MAY 37JUN 39JUL Lagos recorded 39 incidents but only nine fatalities, with NURTW gang and cult violence in the Mushin-Fadeyi corridor the dominant lethal thread. NURTW assassination and its falloutFraud and low-level crime Kogi21 INC37 KIA 2FEB 9MAR 14APR 16MAY 39JUN 21JUL Kogi recorded 37 fatalities across 21 incidents, with a coal-mine disaster in Ankpa the single deadliest event and kidnapping targeting NECO examination centres. Mining and highway disastersKidnapping and unexplained killings Rivers29 INC24 KIA 1FEB 15MAR 15APR 14MAY 9JUN 29JUL Rivers recorded 24 fatalities across 29 incidents, dominated by the assassination of an OSPAC vigilante commander and cult-linked violence in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni LGA. The Omoku OSPAC killingCommunal and domestic violence OutlookAugust 2026 ⚠ CONFLICT RISK ALERTS
✓ RESOLUTION OPPORTUNITIES
↑ DETERIORATED SITUATIONS Benue. Repeated herder massacres in Otukpo, Ohimini, and Katsina-Ala LGAs sharply raised the death toll. Niger. Kamuku-Fulani ethnic clashes in Rafi LGA and bandit attacks in Pandogari and Borgu drove a steep fatality rise. Katsina. Large-scale military engagements and bandit raids on Malumfashi and Bakori produced high combined fatalities. Kwara. The Lata Nna community's documented two-year toll and continued bandit activity elevated fatalities despite fewer incidents. Rivers. Cult and vigilante killings including the OSPAC Omoku commander's assassination raised both metrics. Zamfara. Bandit massacres at Sauna, Talata Mafara offset heavy military gains. Taraba. Gunmen attacks and herder-farmer reprisals in Sardauna and Bali LGAs increased casualties. Nasarawa. Rising raid activity near the FCT border, including a kidnapping and killing of a retired officer. Yobe. Renewed ISWAP/JAS attacks on military checkpoints repelled by Operation HADIN KAI. Kano. An uptick in robbery and drugging crimes against tricycle operators drove incident growth. Akwa Ibom. Maritime piracy attempts along the Oron-Ibaka waterways added to incident volume. Bayelsa. Cult raids in Yenagoa communities increased both metrics modestly. Jigawa. Mob violence including a burning in Birnin Kudu raised incident counts. Ondo. Despite fewer incidents, kidnapping-related shootouts near Akure lifted fatalities. Bauchi. Youth clashes in Katagum drove incident growth even as fatalities fell. Oyo. Fatalities rose marginally amid the Oriire schools abduction rescue operations despite far fewer incidents. Lagos. NURTW gang-linked killings in the Mushin-Fadeyi corridor sustained incident volume even as fatalities dropped. Sokoto. Mass abductions continued but overall fatalities eased from June's spike. Plateau. Herder militia attacks persisted in Riyom and Bokkos, though fatalities fell from June's high. Borno. Incident volume rose but fatalities collapsed as June's exceptional death toll was not repeated. ↓ IMPROVED SITUATIONS Kebbi. Bandit activity in Danko/Wasagu continued but at reduced scale from June. Ogun. Fewer violent incidents recorded, with a substance-poisoning death in Isara-Remo among the notable events. Edo. Reduced incident volume; Army rescues along the Lagos-Benin Expressway limited harm. Kaduna. Fewer incidents overall despite the deadly Kauru and Birnin Gwari attacks. Kogi. Incident volume dropped, though a coal-mine disaster in Ankpa raised the fatality profile. Osun. Fewer hoodlum and political clashes recorded in Osogbo. Ekiti. Minimal recorded activity with no fatalities. OpenWatch Nigeria compiles this brief from open-source reporting on security incidents across Nigeria. Figures are OSINT-derived and may revise as reporting matures. Map geometry: @svg-maps/nigeria (CC BY 4.0). |