Risk Index

Nigeria State Security Risk Index

Every state and the Federal Capital Territory, ranked by reported security incidents and fatalities from OpenWatch’s live record. The risk tier reflects the last 12 months; the table also shows the full historical record.

Incidents · 12 mo

5,889

Fatalities · 12 mo

14,943

Incidents · all-time

32,082

Fatalities · all-time

100,350

		Trend30d	Prominent incidents
Sokoto	Critical	▲	Terrorism · Kidnapping	183	517	547	3,828
Niger	Critical	—	Kidnapping · Terrorism	201	594	1,178	2,985
Katsina	Critical	▲	Kidnapping · Terrorism	231	719	1,096	5,697
Benue	Critical	▼	Communal violence · Kidnapping	274	904	1,340	6,318
Kwara	Critical	▼	Kidnapping · Communal violence	205	926	828	1,464
Zamfara	Critical	—	Terrorism · Kidnapping	290	1,449	1,080	8,993
Plateau	Critical	▲	Communal violence · Kidnapping	549	1,855	1,442	8,205
Borno	Critical	▼	Terrorism · Bombing	567	4,707	2,308	24,336
Cross River	High	▲	Kidnapping · Communal violence	102	193	478	760
Adamawa	High	▲	Terrorism · Kidnapping	98	292	554	2,994
Kaduna	High	▲	Kidnapping · Communal violence	203	383	1,970	8,555
Kebbi	High	—	Terrorism · Kidnapping	120	413	294	1,150
Yobe	High	▼	Terrorism · Bombing	94	489	471	2,601
Osun	Elevated	▲	Armed robbery · Communal violence	150	63	663	458
Edo	Elevated	▲	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	185	65	1,089	1,074
Nasarawa	Elevated	▲	Kidnapping · Communal violence	82	66	656	2,007
Imo	Elevated	▼	Kidnapping · Terrorism	94	70	757	935
Ogun	Elevated	▲	Armed robbery · Kidnapping	163	76	1,371	1,157
Oyo	Elevated	▲	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	210	85	747	568
Ondo	Elevated	—	Kidnapping · Communal violence	156	86	785	604
Bauchi	Elevated	▲	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	127	86	531	725
Anambra	Elevated	▲	Kidnapping · Terrorism	112	86	685	887
Kano	Elevated	▲	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	149	110	867	1,387
Taraba	Elevated	▲	Communal violence · Kidnapping	76	111	606	2,173
Lagos	Elevated	—	Armed robbery · Scam/fraud	238	115	2,472	1,524
Rivers	Elevated	—	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	125	124	1,052	1,858
Kogi	Elevated	▼	Kidnapping · Communal violence	138	141	846	1,456
Ekiti	Moderate	—	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	64	11	535	270
Bayelsa	Moderate	—	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	28	12	585	513
Ebonyi	Moderate	▲	Communal violence · Kidnapping	41	17	294	701
Jigawa	Moderate	▼	Armed robbery · Kidnapping	45	20	254	175
Abia	Moderate	▲	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	60	21	329	423
Enugu	Moderate	—	Armed robbery · Kidnapping	71	29	437	513
FCT	Moderate	▲	Armed robbery · Kidnapping	164	45	1,430	1,576
Delta	Moderate	—	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	168	48	855	824
Akwa Ibom	Low	—	Kidnapping · Armed robbery	88	6	415	333
Gombe	Low	▲	Armed robbery · Communal violence	38	9	235	323

Tier by fatalities (12 mo):CriticalHighElevatedModerateLow

How this is built

Each state’s tier is set by the number of reported fatalities in the trailing 12 months: Critical (500+), High (150+), Elevated (50+), Moderate (10+), or Low. Incident volume, which includes kidnappings, robberies and clashes that are not always lethal, is shown alongside but does not set the tier. That is deliberate: it keeps high-volume, lower-lethality urban states from being ranked above the lethal banditry and insurgency zones.

Counts come from OpenWatch’s incident record, excluding retracted reports, and update hourly. Reported figures are a floor, not a census: incidents in remote areas are routinely under-reported, so a low count is not a guarantee of safety. Last incident recorded: 10 September 2026.